Thursday, June 19, 2014

World Cup 2014 -Predictive Analytics Showdown

Are you in World Cup 2014 friendly pool? Get help from 'experts' on statistically predicting 'who would advance and win the 2014 World Cup'.

If your betting window is closed, enjoy the game.

The models being off-target and you lose, it's very likely you will forget the loss (Freakonomics, bad predictions are rarely punished). Statistical models always learn from past recent events and refine the variables. Hope you win next time.

Here are the collections of World Cup 2014 Data Analytics and Visualizations

Nate Silver Vs. Goldman Sachs Vs. Bloomberg

Remember Nate Silver, 2008 US General Elections Prediction?, He and his team at FiveThirtyEight have statistical models on various subjects- Politics, Economics, Science, Life and Sports.

I like the visualization of the model.

FiveThirtyEight explains the statistical models which calculates the probability of teams advancing to the World Cup 2014 final. This model uses ESPN's SPI (Soccer Power Index).

Bloomberg with BSports have a good visualization, you can add your predictions and visualize.

The third model is by Goldman Sachs (they have been doing this since last four World cups)

SAP vs SAS vs R

SAP Lumira has fun facts and profitability.

There is not much analysis by SAS team, except this blog.

R-Bloggers contributors have posted statistical predictions -one favoring Germany and other Brazil.

Statsinthewild has interesting stats and data visualization.
Data Visualization

My favorite tool to visualize and learn World cup data is Google Trends. It uses real-time search data and uses interesting visualization techniques. I LOVE IT !!!

Tableau uses ESPN SPI statistics

What's is the difference between Prediction and Forecasting?
Prediction is a estimate of a specific event in the future. Forecasting is identifying all possible outcomes with each having its own probability, the total probability of all events will be close to 1.

The world just woke up now to 'Predictive Analysis'. The below Google Trends graphs seems to agree

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